The day is January 5th, 2014. Lambeau Field is filled with 77,000+ people watching as Colin Kaepernick orchestrates a 5 minute drive to put Phil Dawson and the 49ers in range to send Aaron Rodgers home for the second straight year. The windchill is freezing the air to a frigid -10 degrees and there’s 10 MPH gusts whirling around to increase the difficulty level for the seasoned vet. The snap is out, handled nicely. From Dawson’s left, Davon House is roaring around the edge. Dawson sneaks the ball through House’s outstretched arms, seals the victory, and ends the ‘13-’14 Green Bay Packers campaign. That season, 2013-2014, was the last time a Mike McCarthy led team had a top 10 Rushing Attack (In terms of RuYards or RuTDs).
Mike McCarthy, after taking a year off, returned to the Head Coaching ranks to take hold the reigns of the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are riddled with young talent at just about every skilled position, and in the fantasy world, people are drooling over what this team can accomplish. The numbers don’t lie either, here are the ADPs for the Cowboys offense right now:
Dak Prescott: QB3 / 42 OVR
Ezekiel Elliott: RB3 / 3 OVR (1st Round)
Amari Cooper: WR9 / 27 OVR (3rd Round)
Michael Gallup: WR31 / 72 OVR (6th or 7th Round)
CeeDee Lamb: WR38 / 93 OVR (9th or 10th Round)
Blake Jarwin: TE18 / 153 OVR (15th or 16th Round)
Can all of these players possibly live up to their ADP values? I don’t think so. I think there is going to be a major disappointment out of this group. I think that player may just be Ezekiel Elliott.
Ezekiel Elliott has been a model of consistency since he entered the league in 2016. He’s rushed at least 300 times and for over 1,000 yards in all but 1 season. What concerns me for Zeke’s fantasy production is the looming implementation of Mike McCarthy’s offense. Since 2014, the Cowboys have cracked the top 10 in team rushing attempts 5 times. They’ve also finished in the top 10 for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns 5 and 6 times, respectively. Mike McCarthy led offenses have made the top 10 in rushing attempts….ONCE……in 2000, when he was the New Orleans Offensive Coordinator. His teams have made the leagues top 10 in rushing yards….TWICE….in 2000 and 2013 (Eddie Lacy’s rookie year).
We’re all aware of what McCarthy was able to accomplish through the air for all those years in Green Bay with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. In fact, the breakdown of average fantasy finishes for McCarthy’s skilled position players is as follows:
QB: 7.2
RB: 23.4
WR1: 10.0
WR2: 29.5
WR3: 62.3
TE1: 23.3
Compare these numbers to the current ADP of the Cowboys skilled position players and its relatively close for all but a Rookie WR and the veteran Back.
In 13 years as the GB Head Coach, McCarthy’s top scoring back has only cracked the RB1 status 3 times and one of those years Aaron Rodgers missed 7 games with a broken collarbone. As a head coach, McCarthy has NEVER had a back finish in the top 5 for fantasy scoring.
Do I think Zeke is a top 4 back talent wise? Without question. Do I think that maybe Jerry Jones saw what McCarthy did with Rodgers for all those years and called him in to do the same with Dak? And then also spent a 1st round pick on a WR when the team clearly needs depth elsewhere to ensure that McCarthy will succeed? Yes, yes I do. Mike Mccarthy and Dallas’ recent investments to the WR position (a 1st and a huge contract for Cooper/ a 1st on Lamb) I truly believe could be cause for concern for Zeke’s volume.
I don’t have Zeke in my top 3 RB redraft rankings and if I have Zeke dynasty shares, I’m in sell high mode.
AverageFantasyFootballGuy.com 