Way Too Early 2021 QB Rankings (Dynasty)

Let me start by wishing everybody a Happy New Year! Welcome to 2021! We’re about 7-8 months away from Fantasy Draft season. Between now and then we’ll have the playoffs, NFL Draft, Free Agency, and possibly even an actual offseason/training camp. There are pretty much infinite possibilities in terms of things that can affect these rankings…BUT…dynasty never sleeps. This is the time you take advantage of the hype trains or even buy players that had a rough season. In the first installment of my “Way Too Early Rankings” I’ll cover how I feel about QBs heading in to the offseason and even mark them with a little note, or two, to provide a little extra insight. For example, I may rank a QB at a certain level but if I expect a change I’ll mark it (If I think the team will select a QB is a good “use case”).

The Value* column is where I think the player’s value is currently. What I mean by that is where I believe others will value him, not me. So if my rank is higher, I would consider that player a “Buy” and if my rank is lower, I would most likely advise you to “Sell”.

My Rank	Value*	Name	2020 Rank	Notes
1	1-2	Patrick Mahomes	4	Not much to be said here.
2	2-4	Josh Allen	1	I’m working with the assumption that 2020 wasn’t a fluke. Diggs bolstered Allen’s passing production and his rushing ability provides an incredible floor.
3	2-5	Kyler Murray	2	See Allen. Sub Hopkins in for Diggs.
4	2-4	Deshaun Watson	5	The Texans are a bad football team. The lone bright spot is Watson and his ability to make things happen. I don’t see the defense improving much (with 1 pick in the 1st 3 rounds) so Watson should continue to be playing from behind.
5	4-7	Dak Prescott	N/A	Dak was posting unreal numbers last season before his injury. If he stays with the Cowboys he’ll be returning to the same system with an elite WR group.
6	3-5	Lamar Jackson	10	The 2019 MVP got off to a slow start and was held back by COVID as well. He’s since regained his confidence and his weekly floor is one of the highest.
7	8-10	Justin Herbert	9	This kid is the real deal. He likely would have finished higher had he not sat behind Tyrod Taylor for a few games. Elite WR group and potentially an Offensive minded HC coming in makes him an incredibly valuable asset.
8	5-7	Russell Wilson	6	Wilson frustrated managers down the stretch but maybe because he was plastered everywhere as the MVP favorite. Still, Wilson finished in the top 7 and will have DK Metcalf catches passes for the next few years.
9	6-10	Ryan Tannehill	7	Tannehill has resurrected his career in Tennessee. Having Henry, AJB, and a couple of other nice pieces help but they aren’t going anywhere soon.
10	4-10	Aaron Rodgers	3	ARod just posted a 48 TD season and dare I say, it could’ve been better had the Front Office not spent their first two picks on players that barely played. Rodgers in on the older side but Fantasy is about winning championships.
11	N/A	Trevor Lawrence	N/A	Lawrence is the presumed #1 Overall pick in the upcoming draft. In my opinion, he will be as valuable of an asset as they come. Even if his production isn’t that high this year, he may be flippable immediately.
12	8-11	Joe Burrow	N/A	What an upsetting end to a stellar start for Burrow. Honestly, the only two things keeping him lower in my rankings is the significance of the injury and the turnover I expect from that team. Slightly risky.
13	12-15	Baker Mayfield	17	Mayfield is leading the Browns to their first Postseason action in 17 years even after losing OBJ. If those two can figure it out, it may be “dangerous” (pun intended)
14	N/A	Justin Fields	N/A	Assuming Fields is slotted after Lawrence I think he’s an immediate starter and is worth the risk over some of the higher floor, veteran, options.
15	18-22	Carson Wentz	22	Wentz had a rough season, no doubt. But with his contract, it’s tough to see him not starting *somewhere* next season. If the former MVP candidate can find himself in a good situation I think he’ll provide great ROI. Despite the struggles, he was QB11 before the transition to Hurts.
16	8-14	Jalen Hurts	N/A	Hurts showed that his rushing ability will provide a nice floor. My only reservations are the Wentz situation and skill position players struggling to develop under Pederson. (If Wentz were to be traded/cut, Hurts jumps in to the top 10-11 rather easily)
17	14-20	Matt Ryan	14	Ryan is on the tail end of his great career and will enter the 2021 season in a new Offensive system for the 100th (kidding) time. I don’t know how many years Ryan has left with Atlanta but as long as he’s throwing to Julio and Ridley he’s worth a roster spot.
18	8-12	Tom Brady	7	Brady surpassed all expectations this season and with 40+ TDs, it was “Manning-in-Denver”-esque. However, Brady is 43 years old and looked really terrible at times this season. Redraft he is probably worth another go but in Dynasty, I would say its time to move on.
19	20-25	Drew Lock	29	I’m much higher than most on Lock but I think he’s got something there. He was throwing to mainly Rookies this season and both he and his best option (Fant) IMO was hurt on and off again. With an offseason to prepare and the return of Sutton, I expect to see a major leap in Lock’s production.
20	17-21	Kirk Cousins	13	Kirk may have had the quietest QB13 season of all time. A fringe QB1 and will benefit from a full offseason with the Rookie Receiving yards record holder. That Adam Thielen guy isn’t too shabby either and I guess Dalvin Cook is nice to have. At QB20, Kirk would be a great high floor vet to have on your dynasty bench.