Should They Stay or Should They Go

Dynasty fantasy football is played with a different mindset than the standard “redraft” or even “keeper” leagues. Players’ potential is valued a bit higher than normal and the savvy veterans tend to be devalued. We aim for higher ceilings to minimize the risk of missing out on the next big thing. This sometimes causes us to overvalue and we’re stuck with a superstar-less roster and a basket of decisions to make. The main ones being: “Should they stay or should they go?”

Veterans: How Old is too old?

Veterans are the backbones of great teams. It doesn’t matter what sport and it doesn’t matter if it’s “IRL” or “Fantasy”. Winning teams need veterans. The complexity is finding the perfect balance of age within a roster. Too old and your future is in doubt, too young and you may sacrifice the short term. Here is a list of veterans that I think are interesting and if I believe they are “Buy” or “Sell” options.

Robert Woods

Robert Woods, or “Bobby Trees” to Fantasy Twitter, is an under the radar type of player. Since joining LAR in 2017 Woods has finished worse than WR14, only once (in his first season there) and is on pace to finish as WR 13 this season. Woods is signed to the Rams through 2025 but has a potential out in 2021. After that, his Cap hit is above $13mil until he’s 33 years old. With the Rams investing more draft capital in to the WR position this past year, and already having a nice piece in Cooper Kupp, it’s hard to imagine the Rams not taking advantage of the Potential 2021 “out”.

SELL: If I’m a Woods owner, it would be difficult to sell him for top dollar. Like I said, he tends to fly under the radar and mentioning WR13 to players would likely surprise them. However, biting the bullet I think is a necessary evil for teams that aren’t immediately competing or deep at the WR position. I would part with Woods for a 2nd round pick, or any young talent that I believed had starting potential.

Ronald Jones

Ronald Jones may have been lost for the remainder of the season after getting surgery on a broken finger. Despite drafting Jones in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL Draft, the Buccaneers have since added Lesean McCoy, Leonard Fournette, and drafting Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the 3rd round this past offseason. Jones, as of today, is RB13. However, he has been wildly inconsistent, doesn’t contribute in the pass game, and looks to be in a shaky situation. He has one year remaining on his rookie contract but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs decided to move on from the former 2nd round pick.

SELL: Jones’ value will likely never be higher than it is at this very moment. Even if he were to build on his success this season next year, I can’t see him cracking the top 7-9 and I really can’t picture a world where TB signs him to a contract that would command playing time. I would part with Jones for a 2nd, or higher, in either of the next two fantasy drafts. Even a lateral movement in terms of fantasy production, if the potential of the player coming in is higher.

Ezekiel Elliott

Zeke recently signed a massive deal and so far, hasn’t lived up to the bill. After Dak Prescott’s injury, the Cowboys offense began to unravel. This was an obvious outcome as Dak, prior to his injury, was a top 5 fantasy QB. Since then, Zeke has struggled to get much going and Tony Pollard has begun to earn more playing time. Zeke was also known for being a massively high volume back under former HC Jason Garrett, Mike McCarthy however has a history of running a pass happy offense.

HOLD: Prior to the season I wrote an article detailing the possible regression in Zeke’s fantasy production and I suggested selling the former rushing champion. However, after a down year I don’t think that the value you would receive in a potential deal would be worth moving on from a player who I believe still has another 2 years left of top 10 RB production. If I was offered anything in the range of top 3 1st round pick, or a package of lower value picks and/or a young RB in the range RB8-15 (example: Miles Sanders or Jonathan Taylor) I would be more than willing to pull the trigger.

Kenny Golladay

Golladay was definitely a letdown this season. However, in the 4 games played he posted 20 catches, 338 yards, and 2 TDs. He is an elite talent. I also think it’s likely that the 4th year vet shut himself down a bit early given the current status of the Lions, as well as the fact that he will be looking for a contract this offseason. When healthy, Golladay is a pure WR1 that has the ability to win games, both in the NFL and in your fantasy league.

BUY: Kenny Golladay is a buy candidate for me. I would like to wait to see if he remains with the Lions, as I feel there’s potential that he stays and they move on from Stafford. I like to avoid uncertainty if possible, but I think the talent is too great. Another contributing factor to this is that you may be dealing with a frustrated manager who is looking to move on from him. This could lower the price. I would imagine that a 1st round pick in either of the next two seasons should get you close, if not complete the deal. I don’t think that anything required in addition would force me to pull away from landing the WR.

Other Veteran Players (short descriptions)

DJ Chark / SELL: Chark has suffered from poor QB play for most of the season. However, he has seen a massive number of targets compared to his catches so I would expect him to produce higher than his WR42 ranking. I don’t see his situation getting much better and I’m not sure he has the talent to overcome it.
Joe Mixon / BUY: After signing a massive contract prior to the start of the season, Mixon got off to a rather inefficient start. After just a few weeks, a foot injury sidelined him for what looks to be the remainder of the year. This could be a produce of CIN protecting their investment in a lost season. First overall pick Joe Burrow publicly voiced how much he loved playing with Mixon and with the emergence of Higgins, that offense looks dangerous.
Robby Anderson / BUY: The former Temple Owl reunited with his college HC, Matt Rhule, after Rhule was hired by the Panthers. In his first season away from the horror show that is the New York Jets, Anderson is on pace to catch over 100 passes and over 1,000 yards and is currently WR14 on the year. After running a 4.36 40 at the combine Anderson went undrafted, but it seems Rhule knows the secrets to unlocking the potential. Its hard to see Carolina taking the potential out after this season and it will mean Anderson, with one year left will be in “prove it” mode for the second time prior to his 29th birthday.

Rookies: Who’s Up Next?

Rookies who explode on to the scene are the closest thing to “untouchable” as you can get in the Dynasty world. For that reason, I’ll avoid the obvious names like CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. I’ll also drop the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor into that category. If you want to take a run at them, I would imagine they have a price, but I’m not going to guess what it would take to part with them. So who should you target? Who should you sell?

Jalen Reagor

Reagor sparked wonder in to fans over the offseason when he was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles over LSU’s Justin Jefferson. After suffering an early season injury and Jefferson making a mark on the league early, Reagor has struggled in an offense that has since lost most of its offensive lineman and is in a full blown QB controversy. Jalen Hurts has taken over the Eagles offense but is much more of a modern, “make it happen with my legs when things break down”, QB. This was evident in his first start when he ran the ball 18 times. Hurts isn’t the best thrower of the football and plays the game much more like the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. If recent history has taught us anything, its that speedy receivers like Reagor and Marquise Brown, tend to struggle in producing fantasy points with run first QBs.

SELL: The excitement surrounding Jalen Hurts should help maintain Reagor’s value and I think that Reagor managers will be able to net a nice return if they were to move on from the rookie WR after one year. I would be willing to take a 2nd or any startable fantasy asset.

Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins is a 6’4″ tall athletic monster and was draft with the 33rd overall pick by the Bengals to pair with Joe Burrow. So far, he has delivered. With the combination or Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and Joe Burrow I don’t see any reason to believe why Higgins wouldn’t be a very important part of this team moving forward. He is on pace for just over 70 catches and just under 1,000 yards while adding 5 TDs thus far, all while playing with a rookie QB and his backups.

BUY: Higgins is pretty obviously a buy for me. Higgins is built like the aforementioned Kenny Golladay and has been dropped in an organization that seems determined to help their First Overall pick QB succeed. If AJ Green were to leave this offseason and vacate targets that would only solidify my opinion.

Cam Akers

Akers struggled for much of the season and up until recent weeks, had shown little to help fantasy managers decide that he was worth a roster spot. The past few weeks though, there has been a real increase in the snap percentages for Akers. Match this with his taking full advantage of the opportunity he may have won himself the role in the LA system that propelled Todd Gurley to Fantasy God Tier just a few years back.

BUY: I think that I have seen enough from Akers to be willing to invest in shares over the offseason. I am, admittedly, assuming that his current role will not diminish over the rest of the regular season and throughout any post season run LA may have. If that were the case, you may have some trouble prying him away from other owners. As of today, he may potentially be acquired for cheaper than his actual value/potential.

As for the rest of the Rookies, I would say with such a small sample size that holding is likely the best scenario. In some cases, it may be the only scenario. Be sure to shoot over some screenshots of you dynasty trades on twitter @FantasyAverage, or even just ask me what I think about a certain player you may have. Roster context can sway any opinion, so the more details the better!